Father-to-be Johnson cradles consecutive wins

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/28/2010 - Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jimmie Johnson recently went 10 races without a victory, many speculated that the four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion was in a season-slump. Now that Johnson has won back-to-back races at Sonoma, CA and New Hampshire, it's time to put that theory to rest.

Thanks in part to Marcos Ambrose's misfortune in the closing laps at Sonoma, Johnson claimed his first road course win. Ambrose held the lead during a caution with seven laps remaining, but lost his track position after he turned his engine off to conserve fuel and then had trouble restarting the car. That allowed second-place Johnson to take the lead for good.

It was a different story for Johnson in New Hampshire, where he had his hands full with Kurt Busch in the closing laps. Just after the final restart with eight laps to go, Busch made a bump-and-run move on Johnson to take the lead.

But Johnson was set on returning the favor, and doing so with aggression.

"I was livid," Johnson said. "I was so [ticked] off that he got into me, and I almost lost it at one point. Just kind of sliding and it took off and the tires started chattering, and that's usually when you're turned around.

"Once I got back going and I was still in second, I thought, 'Man, I hope I catch you. I look forward to this if I catch you.' And my incentive was not necessarily to pass him. All I had to do was get to his bumper, and I was going to win the race, if he gave me that option by moving me out of the way."

Johnson reeled in Busch and then pulled even with him before Johnson made the winning pass with less than two laps to go.

Unlike some races this season, Johnson and Busch prevented New Hampshire from erupting into a post-race pit road skirmish.

"The thought was ten points winning would look a lot better stacked in our deck than his chip count, that was the original thought," said Busch, who ended up finishing third after Tony Stewart passed him on the final lap. "Driving into turn three, I had all intentions of passing him on the inside and trying to cut underneath him at the apex. I just got into him a little bit in the left rear and nudged him up, and we were able to squeak on by.

"Your motive is always to pass a guy clean, and you always want to make sure that when you do pass him that he's not completely upset with you, and then we'll go and race again, if he's going to come back and try to pass me at the end. He did, and he did great."

Johnson's fifth win placed him in a tie with Denny Hamlin for most victories in the series so far this season. Each driver who qualifies for the championship Chase is awarded 10 bonus points for each race he wins during the regular season. There are nine races remaining before the Chase begins in September at New Hampshire.

"The ten points are really important," Johnson said. "It's nice to be even with Denny, and to have a gap on some of the other guys right now."

Indeed, these are good times for Johnson. His wife, Chandra, is expected to deliver the couple's first child any day soon. If her delivery occurs during an upcoming race weekend, Camping World Truck Series regular Aric Almirola will serve as Johnson's backup driver.

Daytona (July 3) and Chicagoland (July 10) are the next races on the schedule before Sprint Cup takes its second-to-last off-weekend of the season.

"I know it's kind of a weird situation," Johnson said. "[Almirola] is really hoping for the opportunity, and I know he'll do an amazing job given the opportunity, and then I want to stay in my ride and try to win as many races as I can.

"It just all depends on when the little baby decides to make her move and when she wants to come into the world, and if she's anything like her mother, she'll be late, so I should be fine, which puts us into the off-weekend, nice and deep."

In recent years, it's usually Tony Stewart who heats up in the summer time. It appears Johnson has replaced Stewart as the summer sensation this year. If Johnson remains hot for the next couple of months, just imagine what he will be like during Chase, the time when he really shines.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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